Parliament’s budget stress test

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MEPs are talking a big game on the next major fight in Brussels: the more than €1 trillion EU budget. The starting gun will be fired in one month, when the Commission sets out a blueprint, and the fight will likely run into mid-2027 (perfectly timed for France’s next presidential election).

Money where your mouth is: Before the Commission’s proposal has even landed, MEPs are clamouring for more money. Here in Strasbourg on Tuesday, top Socialist Iratxe García warned the Commission not to touch the European Social Fund (designed to support job creation), while EPP chief Manfred Weber said the seven-year budget mustn’t become a “cash machine” for national governments.

But one year after an EU election that delivered a less assertive and more fragmented Parliament, there isn’t much evidence that MEPs are capable of meeting that moment. Instead, the real battle will pit powerful EU countries against each other – and the Commission.

For all the talk about once “frugal” countries like Denmark now loosening their belts in order to splurge on defence, Germany – my colleagues reported this week – is adamantly opposed to increasing countries’ EU budget contributions.

Other big fights will be over an untransparent cash-for-reforms model, backed by Berlin and the Commission, and whether Ursula von der Leyen’s plan to consolidate power by merging myriad programs into a few mega-funds will pass muster among spendthrift states.

Pliant, distracted Parliament: MEPs face a reckoning too. After decades steadily clawing more powers, that process has stalled. Parliament won few concessions as it waved through all 27 commissioners last year. That was down to the hegemony of the EPP, which weighs heaviest among all three main institutions, suppressing the appetite for score-settling between EU bodies. Its president, Roberta Metsola, spent last week facing questions about whether she’d go into domestic politics in Malta, and technical talks to upgrade the Parliament-Commission relationship are dragging on without results.

This year Parliament, increasingly sidelined by von der Leyen, has frequently acquiesced to her calls to fast-track legislation, giving MEPs a lesser role in scrutinising laws – the purpose of the Parliament’s very existence. The fast-track procedure has been used on everything from producing more weapons to slashing red tape and downgrading the protection status of wolves. (Weber defended the urgency process saying it gives all MEPs a vote in plenary and the economy needs fast decisions).

Simion wants to vote down Commission: The ECR group is distancing itself from an unlikely move by failed Romanian presidential candidate George Simion to bring down the Commission. An MEP called Gheorghe Piperea from his AUR party, who sits in the ECR group, is close to reaching enough signatures to launch a process that could – but likely won’t – trigger a confidence vote.

His draft letter says von der Leyen “no longer commands the confidence of Parliament to uphold the principles of transparency, accountability, and good governance essential to a democratic Union”. I was even told that three members of the EPP have signed, though the signatories are not yet known. An ECR spokesperson said: “The individuals involved in this initiative are acting under their own steam.”

EPP and Renew court Romania’s Dan: Romania’s new President Nicușor Dan is facing overtures from both the centre right and liberals at European level. Weber announced that Dan would attend a meeting of centre-right leaders in Brussels ahead of next week’s European Council, omitting to mention that Dan will also attend the Renew pre-summit meeting.

Dan’s our man: Renew chief Valérie Hayer paid a trip to Romania last week to encourage Dan – an independent – to cosy up to the liberals, and “personally invite” him to the meeting next Thursday, her spokesperson said.

Spanish government preps MEPs for corruption debate: Javier Moreno, a spokesperson for the Spanish government in Brussels has briefed MEPs on the corruption scandals plaguing Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s party, following up in an email to members, seen by Euractiv. Sent Tuesday ahead of a debate in the European Parliament today on Spain, Moreno blamed the conservatives, and the EPP for foisting it onto the agenda.

“[On Wednesday], we will once again witness an example of the Partido Popular and the far-right’s dirty war,” Moreno wrote, “as they attempt to turn the European Parliament into yet another battlefield to attack the Spanish Government”.

Johansson’s back with a mission: Former Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson is making a comeback as the EU’s special envoy for Ukrainians, reporting directly to EU Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner. The appointment was confirmed yesterday, with a one-year mandate and an option to extend.

Not a random pick: Johansson was the one who pulled the trigger on the EU’s long-dormant Temporary Protection Directive (TPD) back in 2022, giving immediate shelter to millions fleeing Russia’s war on Ukraine. “I was the one who activated the TPD in the first place. So, of course, this is close to my heart,” she told Euractiv in an interview.

Back in 2023: Two years ago, the use of the directive, which had been shelved for over 20 years, sparked controversy over double standards for not being triggered during the 2015 migration crisis. In a 2023 interview with Euractiv, Johansson admitted that failing to activate it in 2015 was the “wrong decision”. She still stands by that view.

Could the TPD be triggered again for a future crisis? “I hope not,” Johansson said Tuesday. “We’re much better now in preparing for that kind of situation.”

A delicate balancing act: Johansson said her new role is about balancing return options with meaningful integration. She’ll also serve as the EU’s main counterpart to Ukraine’s newly appointed Minister for Unity – and Deputy Prime Minister – Oleksiy Chernyshov.

The road ahead: A Commission plan to phase out the TPD includes go-and-see visits for Ukrainians to assess whether returning is a viable option, helping refugees transition to other residence permits or protection statuses, and launching so-called “unity hubs” to provide information and guidance.

Cautious optimism: “I think it’s a good strategy,” Johansson said, but added: “Whether it’s successful or not, it’s too early to say…”

Still, she’s keeping her ear to the ground: Johansson’s role will be to stay in close contact with Kyiv, national ministers, and member states, and if needed, “to suggest to Commissioner Brunner” any course corrections. “It’s for him to decide,” she added, “but I can report what I learned”.

EDIP breakthrough: EU representatives are expected to sign off today on their common position on the European Defence Industry Programme, also known as EDIP, which aims to boost the bloc’s arms production and joint procurement. This step would open the negotiations with the Parliament next month.

For months, negotiations over EDIP were blocked, as the 27 EU states disagreed as to where the EU money should go – and whether foreign companies established in Europe should benefit from it.

According to a compromise text, first seen by Euractiv, foreign missile and ammunition producers can by-pass some of the requirements, if they agree to share technology with the Europeans.

No one is fully satisfied by the compromise, as two EU diplomats told Euractiv, but the deal is still expected to pass.

30 is the magic number: Council prevailed in negotiations with the European Parliament yesterday as the latter agreed to a 30% threshold for the Visa Suspension Mechanism – i.e. the percentage increase in asylum claims that would trigger the suspension of visa-free travel for third-country nationals.

Plane rights fight: Parliament voiced a near unanimous rebuke to the Council’s position on air passenger rights at the Strasbourg plenary on Tuesday night. MEPs argued that the Council’s position disproportionately favours airlines and waters down the rights of passengers – particularly measures which would adjust the rates of compensation for delayed flights.

Several MEPs noted that requesting compensation is also too onerous. “We often speak of simplification – but why not take the obvious step and introduce automatic payments for delays? MEP Johan Danielsson of the S&D said. “At the moment, you have to send in all kinds of forms and wait months to enjoy this right.”

Vladivostok attack: German newspaper Spiegel reported Tuesday that an EU official had been attacked in Vladivostok in eastern Russia. Ukrainian media reported the diplomat had been evacuated from Russia in an unknown condition.

From Strasbourg

European Parliament President Roberta Metsola backed dropping four key EU proposals but flagged internal pushback from senior MEPs who want them revived, including on AI liability and anti-discrimination. Read more.

The European Parliament is moving to set up a permanent body to scrutinise Commission funding of NGOs. Read more.

The EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, defended the bloc’s response to the war in Gaza on Tuesday, telling European lawmakers “You feel better expressing anger at me … You feel better that you have done something”. Read more.

The EU Parliament is pushing for pregnant MEPs to temporarily pass on their mandate during maternity leave, but the proposal may exclude fathers. Read more.

Quoted

“Regulating is our standard law of solving problems. Whenever businesses or member states come to the Commission and say, ‘Hey, we’ve got a problem,’ there are, as member states, only two ways of addressing the problem: either by spending money (and we have none), or by regulating. So, we regulate.” – Carsten Grønbech-Jensen, Danish Ambassador to the EU.

Around the bloc

FRANCE | Violent messages have surfaced in an official online support group for far-right leader Jordan Bardella, reigniting concerns over the Rassemblement National’s efforts to curb extremist content. Read more.

GERMANY | The Greens believe they can reconcile backing Israel with calling for a partial embargo on weapon deliveries and a ceasefire in Gaza, their co-chair, Felix Banaszak, told Euractiv. Read more.

ROMANIA | President Nicuşor Dan and the pro-European parties – PSD, PNL, USR, and UDMR – have reportedly reached an agreement to form a new rotating government. Read more.

SLOVAKIA | Prime Minister Roberto Fico caused a stir Tuesday, declaring that “neutrality would suit Slovakia in a time of senseless armament” but that “unfortunately, it’s not for me to decide”. Read more.

Also on Euractiv

EU Environment Commissioner Jessika Roswall questioned member states’ ambition after ministers agreed to push the introduction of a 25% recycled plastic target for carmakers back to a decade. Read more.

The EU triggered the Civil Protection Mechanism to help European countries evacuate their citizens from the Middle East in response to the Israel-Iran military escalation. Read more.

Scoop – A coalition of EU countries, including France, Spain, and Italy, will push the European Commission to ban traditional meat names for plant-based substitutes. Read more.

Entre nous

Agenda

Plenary session in Strasbourg, featuring debates on: the upcoming NATO summit; the situation in Gaza; freedom of assembly in Hungary; the proposed Clean Industrial Deal; the state of electricity grids; the humanitarian crisis in South Sudan; various cases of human rights, democracy and rule of law breaches; and the rule of law in Spain.

Belarus opposition: Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya speaks at the EESC plenary debate at 16:30, followed by a short press point with EESC President Oliver Röpke at 17:45, taking place in the Charlemagne building, Alcide De Gasperi room, 170 rue de la Loi.

Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius participates in the International Paris Air Show and the 50th anniversary of the ESA Convention.

The European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) holds its first State of Asylum Conference 2025 in Valletta.

Reporters: Shane LaGesse, Catalina Mihai, Aurélie Pugnet, Natália Silenská.

Editors: Vince Chadwick and Sofia Mandilara.

CORRECTION: This article has been updated to clarify that the refurbishment budget for the Spaak building in Brussels is €450 million.